Two new reports came out today indicating that the U.S. economy is weaker and more fragile than we thought. Productivity dropped for the second consecutive quarter, and hiring slowed. It appears that a weak global economy and the United States increasingly onerous regulatory environment is more than offsetting and stimulus from lower oil prices.

The year 1972 was a big one for me. I left the US Air Force, and I married the woman I still love. Once it dawned on me that I needed income to support my wife and our future family, I started looking about for what to do. I seriously considered working in one of… Read more

This is a comment on the national November Employment Situation report released last Friday, and I use numbers from the report to calculate when the United States might reach the Federal Reserve unemployment rate goal of 6.5 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 7.9 percent in October to 7.7 percent in November which might appear… Read more

The world’s horse population is estimated to not exceed 65 million, while the world’s population of people is estimated at 7.05 billion.  We have at least 108 people for every horse.  It wasn’t always thus.  In 1800, Europe’s estimated horse population was 14 million, while its people population was an estimated 150 million.  They had… Read more

The labor department released their monthly jobs report. Today’s release is a report on the employment situation in August. Payroll jobs rose by 96 thousand jobs, driven by private sector job growth of 103 thousand jobs. The private sector job growth was concentrated in services, particularly professional and business services, education and healthcare services, and… Read more

The BLS Employment Situation was released today, indicating a job increase that exceeded the expectations of the consensus forecast. This information is based on a survey of employers. The 163 thousand job increase over June contrasts with the Bloomberg median consensus of 100 thousand and our forecast of 80 thousand. It is the most rapid… Read more

This from a CNNMoney article: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The International Monetary Fund said Monday that the global economy should continue to limp along at a modest pace, assuming leaders in Europe and the United States do not make things worse. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it expects… Read more

The Labor Department’s Jobs report came out this morning at an 80,000 job increase for June, an 84,000 gain for the private sector and a 4,000 loss for the public sector. We had forecast a 60,000 increase overall and a 70,000 increase for the private sector. The Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2 percent, the… Read more

The United States Employment Situation for March indicates a cooling of job growth that is consistent with our forecast, although somewhat more pronounced than our forecast. It was the services part of the economy that had the greatest slowdown in job creation, from 204 thousand in February down to 90 thousand in March. And, a… Read more

I just finished John Taylor’s new book, First Principles. It’s a very good and fast read. It’s a little over 200 pages, and not a derivative in it. I don’t think there is even an explicit formula in it. Taylor writes very well, especially for an academic economist. Maybe that is from all his years… Read more