Fiscal Dominance    noun a situation in which the fiscal authority is so profligate that a conscientious monetary authority is forced to accommodate – that is, the monetary authority must print money in order to maintain government solvency.   Stockholm Syndrome    noun feelings of trust or affection felt in many cases of kidnapping or hostage-taking… Read more

Written by Dan Hamilton & Matthew Fienup The BLS April Employment Situation is now available for all to see.  After economic forecast houses across the globe ran their models beginning in mid-March and re-ran them again and again until as recently as last night, we now have bona fide economic data on the historical and… Read more

The Coronavirus Recession The Coronavirus is now understood to be having a stunning impact on the U.S. economy. The suspension of economic activity resulting from social distancing and shelter-in-place orders issued across the nation is simply breathtaking. One of the earliest data points to arrive was new jobless claims. Nearly 17 million people have filed… Read more

Considering both the actual stimulus packages passed by Congress and the potential fiscal and monetary responses, we conclude that the U.S. government can do little to reduce the severity and length of the Coronavirus Recession but can do much to prolong it. Monetary policy was already on a crisis footing. Policy makers failed to unwind extraordinary… Read more

As market-watchers, we are suffering from a serious case of whiplash. The week of March 9 saw five consecutive trading sessions in which the S&P 500 moved at least 4.9 percent between the opening and closing bells. Most dizzying of all, the S&P dropped 9.5 percent on Thursday, March 12 and then increased by 9.3… Read more

Written by Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton We do not envy decision makers in local, state, and federal government. They have exceedingly difficult decisions to make, under extreme pressure, with human lives literally hanging in the balance. At the same time, the suspension of economic activity that has resulted from social distancing and shelter-in-place orders… Read more

Written by Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton The Coronavirus is now understood as having a stunning impact on the U.S. economy. The suspension of economic activity is simply breathtaking. It appears safe to say we are experiencing a historic and life-changing event. One week ago, we provided an update, which predicted a Q2 GDP growth… Read more

Written by Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton Although we will be releasing a full U.S. economic forecast publication in just two weeks, the CERF team wants to take a few moments to share some thoughts and observations.  We provide this to the community and our clients so they are abreast of CERF’s thoughts on recent… Read more

The BLS’s U.S. January jobs report was released this morning and it includes not only the latest monthly jobs numbers, but also benchmark revisions. We regard this jobs report as a fairly positive one, but for reasons which are different than those cited by most economists. First, we dismiss the unemployment rate altogether. The unemployment… Read more

Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton (Original post 12/13/19, edits 12/15/19) The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its annual Metro GDP dataset yesterday which provides economic growth figures for our regional economy.  The release includes a new Ventura County GDP growth estimate for 2018 as well as significant, and truly surprising, revisions to the… Read more

An index fund is a portfolio that aims to mimic as possible a designated index, generally a broad-based stock or bond index.  For example, some of the most popular index funds target the Standard and Poor’s index of 500 large stocks.  The SP500 is a market capitalization weighted index.  This means that the weight of… Read more

This is from our First Annual LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report which was published on Thursday, September 26th, at the L’Attitude Conference in San Diego: Executive Summary This report seeks to provide a factual view of the large and growing economic contribution of Latinos living in the United States. In order to do this, we… Read more

Phil Fisher is widely credited with being the father of growth stock investing.  He started an investment partnership in 1931 and ran it for 60 years.  He wrote the book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and advocated running a very concentrated portfolio of no more than five stocks. Phil’s son Ken started his investment management… Read more

We have used this space repeatedly over the past several years to criticize Federal Reserve policy and the significant impacts that it is having on the U.S. economy. As we wrote in June of 2017, “U.S. monetary policy is among the greatest of internal risks to U.S. economic growth.” And in December of 2018, “Extraordinary… Read more