Matthew Fienup, Ph.D.

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Matthew is the Executive Director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) at California Lutheran University. He teaches courses in Econometrics and Environmental Economics in the Masters of Quantitative Economics program. His specialties are applied econometric analysis, the economics of land use, and environmental markets.

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  Executive Summaries New Mexico New Jersey New York Florida Arizona Texas Illinois California State Latino GDP Presentations New Mexico New Jersey New York Florida Arizona Texas Illinois: September 17 California: September 24 -

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2020 LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report seeks to provide a factual view of the large and rapidly growing economic contribution of Latinos living in the United States. We estimate the U.S. Latino GDP based on a detailed, bottom-up construction which leverages publicly available data from major U.S. agencies. The most recent year… Read more

  Fiscal Dominance    noun a situation in which the fiscal authority is so profligate that a conscientious monetary authority is forced to accommodate – that is, the monetary authority must print money in order to maintain government solvency.   Stockholm Syndrome    noun feelings of trust or affection felt in many cases of kidnapping or hostage-taking… Read more

The Coronavirus Recession The Coronavirus is now understood to be having a stunning impact on the U.S. economy. The suspension of economic activity resulting from social distancing and shelter-in-place orders issued across the nation is simply breathtaking. One of the earliest data points to arrive was new jobless claims. Nearly 17 million people have filed… Read more

Considering both the actual stimulus packages passed by Congress and the potential fiscal and monetary responses, we conclude that the U.S. government can do little to reduce the severity and length of the Coronavirus Recession but can do much to prolong it. Monetary policy was already on a crisis footing. Policy makers failed to unwind extraordinary… Read more

As market-watchers, we are suffering from a serious case of whiplash. The week of March 9 saw five consecutive trading sessions in which the S&P 500 moved at least 4.9 percent between the opening and closing bells. Most dizzying of all, the S&P dropped 9.5 percent on Thursday, March 12 and then increased by 9.3… Read more

The BLS’s U.S. January jobs report was released this morning and it includes not only the latest monthly jobs numbers, but also benchmark revisions. We regard this jobs report as a fairly positive one, but for reasons which are different than those cited by most economists. First, we dismiss the unemployment rate altogether. The unemployment… Read more

We have used this space repeatedly over the past several years to criticize Federal Reserve policy and the significant impacts that it is having on the U.S. economy. As we wrote in June of 2017, “U.S. monetary policy is among the greatest of internal risks to U.S. economic growth.” And in December of 2018, “Extraordinary… Read more

Previously published in the 2018 Quarter 4 US Economic Forecast – December 19, 2019 For years, we have been telling anyone who will listen that extraordinary policy experimentation undertaken by the Federal Reserve during the darkest days of the financial crisis remains a major impediment to robust economic growth for the nation. Facing economic meltdown… Read more