Matthew Fienup, Ph.D.

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Matthew is the Executive Director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF) at California Lutheran University. He teaches courses in Econometrics and Environmental Economics in the Masters of Quantitative Economics program. His specialties are applied econometric analysis, the economics of land use, and environmental markets.

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Friday’s record high inflation number came as a surprise to many. At 8.6 percent, the increase in prices since a year ago represents the highest inflation rate in over 40 years. The figure was 30 basis points higher than the Wall Street Journal consensus of forecasters and, perhaps more importantly, flew in the face of conventional… Read more

  Executive Summaries New Mexico New Jersey New York Florida Arizona Texas Illinois California State Latino GDP Presentations New Mexico: Fienup      New Mexico: Hayes-Bautista New Jersey: Fienup      New Jersey: Hayes-Bautista New York: Fienup      New York: Hayes-Bautista Florida: Fienup      Florida: Hayes-Bautista Arizona: Fienup      Arizona: Hayes Bautista Texas: Fienup      Texas: Hayes-Bautista… Read more

Don’t do it. The result will be permanently lower economic growth, less upward economic mobility and greater inequality. For generations. The most urgent economic recovery strategy is one that pays down the extraordinary debt accumulated during the last year. As we stated here, many of the $1.9 trillion bill’s provisions “will be borne on the… Read more

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2020 LDC U.S. Latino GDP Report seeks to provide a factual view of the large and rapidly growing economic contribution of Latinos living in the United States. We estimate the U.S. Latino GDP based on a detailed, bottom-up construction which leverages publicly available data from major U.S. agencies. The most recent year… Read more

  Fiscal Dominance    noun a situation in which the fiscal authority is so profligate that a conscientious monetary authority is forced to accommodate – that is, the monetary authority must print money in order to maintain government solvency.   Stockholm Syndrome    noun feelings of trust or affection felt in many cases of kidnapping or hostage-taking… Read more

The Coronavirus Recession The Coronavirus is now understood to be having a stunning impact on the U.S. economy. The suspension of economic activity resulting from social distancing and shelter-in-place orders issued across the nation is simply breathtaking. One of the earliest data points to arrive was new jobless claims. Nearly 17 million people have filed… Read more

Considering both the actual stimulus packages passed by Congress and the potential fiscal and monetary responses, we conclude that the U.S. government can do little to reduce the severity and length of the Coronavirus Recession but can do much to prolong it. Monetary policy was already on a crisis footing. Policy makers failed to unwind extraordinary… Read more

As market-watchers, we are suffering from a serious case of whiplash. The week of March 9 saw five consecutive trading sessions in which the S&P 500 moved at least 4.9 percent between the opening and closing bells. Most dizzying of all, the S&P dropped 9.5 percent on Thursday, March 12 and then increased by 9.3… Read more

The BLS’s U.S. January jobs report was released this morning and it includes not only the latest monthly jobs numbers, but also benchmark revisions. We regard this jobs report as a fairly positive one, but for reasons which are different than those cited by most economists. First, we dismiss the unemployment rate altogether. The unemployment… Read more