The Labor Department’s Jobs report came out this morning at an 80,000 job increase for June, an 84,000 gain for the private sector and a 4,000 loss for the public sector. We had forecast a 60,000 increase overall and a 70,000 increase for the private sector. The Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2 percent, the same as our forecast.
Bloomberg’s consensus jobs estimate was 100,000. Our forecasts for jobs and economic growth have been consistently under consensus since September 2008. Thus far, our forecasts continue to be vindicated by the data. We would prefer to become optimistic, but have not yet found the opportunity to do so.
Key headwinds for future job growth include Euro area instability, US Macroeconomic policy uncertainty, slow Asia growth, and a still-weak real estate market in the United States.
We remind our clients that real estate is still a key negative factor in the U.S. economy. Household sector wealth remains weakened by falling Case-Shiller home prices, and the weak job market mixes with the large distressed inventory to keep the prospects for a near-term uptick in housing values dim.