Dan Hamilton

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Dan Hamilton is what they call “a numbers guy.” Dan began working with Economic Forecast models in 1997 and has now created a forecast model that is the envy of the industry. He has done forecasting for groups as diverse as Vandenberg Air Force Base, the County of Santa Barbara, the California Environmental Protection Agency (via the city of Santa Maria), Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital, Shea Homes, the Towbes Group, the Ojai Sanitation District, and many others.

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Previously published on December 16, 2016 in the California Economic Forecast publication. United States housing sales have been climbing since the recession, but are still relatively low. This is particularly true once the home sales are adjusted for population. Household formation has shown some signs of life lately, especially since early 2015. New home starts… Read more

Previously published on Friday, June 10th, 2016 on pacbiztimes.com By Dan E. Hamilton Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has been engaged in an unprecedented experiment, one without any economic theory to recommend it. Its policies are internally inconsistent. Some work to restrict credit. Others ease credit. The 2007 failure of New Century Financial, a leading… Read more

Written by Bill Watkins Previously published January 19, 2016 at newgeography.com. Every now and then, something happens to cause California’s comfortable establishment to celebrate the state’s economy.  Recent budget surpluses and jobs data have provided several opportunities, never mind that these are hardly summary statistics.  They don’t tell the complete story. The celebrants conveniently ignore… Read more

At the ASSA economics conference on Sunday, I attended a session on the equilibrium real (inflation adjusted) interest rate.  This topic was being discussed in particular as a metric relating to sluggish U.S. economic growth since the Great Recession. First, some presenters documented empirically that real interest rates since 1860 has had episodes, some of… Read more

Houston, we have liftoff!  That is not what Fed chair Janet Yellen said, but we can say that the Dow closed up 224 points at the end of trading today.  The Fed had telegraphed this move, markets had priced it in, and this market reaction is consistent. I am pleased with this move, as I… Read more

In late 2008, U.S. banks accelerated consolidation driven by intense Federal government pressure (many failing banks were “saved” by being acquired by a larger bank). This yielded a banking structure where today the largest five U.S. banks control over 44 percent of the nation’s banking assets. The five largest U.S. banks held assets of $6.7… Read more

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two day September meeting yesterday, where it will consider raising the short-term policy rate, or the guidance on that rate. It has been nine years since the committee has raised this rate. The prospect of higher rates has financial markets and their commentators very nervous. The rate-raising event,… Read more

Once a year, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases a new set of economic growth estimates that include not yet released numbers for the second quarter and revisions to historical GDP estimates as far five years back. Today is that day. The first estimate of 2015’s second quarter economic growth is 2.3 percent,… Read more

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of the fourth quarter 2013 Gross Domestic Product today. The estimate indicates that the economy grew 3.2 percent in 4th quarter. This followed a 4.1 percent growth rate in quarter 3 which followed a 2.5 percent growth rate in quarter 2. The growth in… Read more

This article was written by Bill Watkins and previously published on New Geography on November 12, 2013. Jerry Brown is supposed to be a different kind of politician: well informed, smart, slick, and skilled. While he has had some missteps, he’s always bounced back. His savvy smarts have allowed him to have a fantastically successful… Read more