Dan Hamilton, Ph.D.


Dan Hamilton is what they call “a numbers guy.” Dan began working with Economic Forecast models in 1997 and has now created a forecast model that is the envy of the industry. He has done forecasting for groups as diverse as Vandenberg Air Force Base, the County of Santa Barbara, the California Environmental Protection Agency (via the city of Santa Maria), Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital, Shea Homes, the Towbes Group, the Ojai Sanitation District, and many others.

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A Personal Story I started tracking, modeling, and forecasting Ventura County (along with the San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Los Angeles County economies) in 2000. The economic growth that was occurring in Ventura County from 1980 through 2007 would have made anyone proud. Not only was the growth explosive, but, it provided high-education jobs… Read more

Introduction The BEA published updated Ventura County Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures Thursday, December 7, 2023. The release provides revisions to all U.S. county-level GDP measures for the years from 2017 to 2021, and provides previously unreleased estimates for 2022. Strikingly, in 2022, Ventura County’s GDP contracted by 0.4 percent, whereas Los Angeles County’s economy… Read more

Written October 16, 2023 A Review of 2023 Thus Far Earlier this year we said these things regarding the U.S. economic outlook: The U.S. economy will not experience a recession in 2023.  The economy will experience Stagflation: slow-growth and persistent inflation that is well above the Fed’s inflation target of two percent. On April 4,… Read more

GDP growth is the single most important measure of Ventura County’s economy, as it provides a breadth and depth that no other economic measure can match. The first estimate of Ventura County’s 2021 GDP was released December 8th by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This release consists of data on every county in the U.S.,… Read more

Written October 21, 2022 The fundamental question for the U.S. macroeconomic forecast is if the pandemic recovery can continue or if the economy is heading into a recession. This outcome will be determined largely by Federal Reserve actions during the quarters ahead. Given how long the Fed waited to fight the current bought of inflation,… Read more

The latest Ventura County GDP data was released Wednesday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This release consists of GDP data for every county and metropolitan area in the U.S. It includes revisions to previously released estimates from 2001 to 2018, and it provides the BEA’s preliminary estimates of 2019 county GDP. Revised… Read more

This essay was written October 26, and published in the Ventura County Economic Forecast Publication that was released on November 5. The U.S. experienced a historic contraction in March, a recession that will mark the history books with its severity and sudden-ness. The $2.2 trillion contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second… Read more

Written by Dan Hamilton & Matthew Fienup The BLS April Employment Situation is now available for all to see.  After economic forecast houses across the globe ran their models beginning in mid-March and re-ran them again and again until as recently as last night, we now have bona fide economic data on the historical and… Read more

Written by Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton We do not envy decision makers in local, state, and federal government. They have exceedingly difficult decisions to make, under extreme pressure, with human lives literally hanging in the balance. At the same time, the suspension of economic activity that has resulted from social distancing and shelter-in-place orders… Read more

Written by Matthew Fienup & Dan Hamilton The Coronavirus is now understood as having a stunning impact on the U.S. economy. The suspension of economic activity is simply breathtaking. It appears safe to say we are experiencing a historic and life-changing event. One week ago, we provided an update, which predicted a Q2 GDP growth… Read more