Here’s what the OECD has to say about the global economy:
But the global economy can be characterised (sic) as only achieving a muddling-through “B-minus ” grade. Global growth in the first quarter of 2015 was weaker than in any quarter since the crisis. And although this softness is seen as transitory, productivity growth continues to disappoint, reflecting in part tepid business investment which has weakened the spread of new technologies.
But, then they say this:
US GDP growth is projected to be 2.0% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016, a downward revision from the November 2014 forecast of 3.1% this year and 3.0% in 2016. While the stronger dollar and adverse weather weighed on growth in early 2015, unemployment continues to fall. Supportive monetary policy and lower oil prices should continue boosting demand.
So far, lower oil prices haven’t boosted demand, and the impacts of post-recession monetary policy will be debated for years. Our forecast for 2015 U.S. GDP growth, 1.4%, is significantly below the OECD forecast of 2.o%. The OECD is likely to be disappointed again.