Since the dismal first-quarter GDP was revised down, we’ve heard all sorts of excuses. These include bad winter weather and problems in the seasonal adjustment process. The bad-winter excuse has been popular for several winters now. Of course, as I’ve said before, strong economies absorb bad winters with minimal impact on output, GDP.
Now, we hear lots of stories about how something must be wrong with the seasonal adjustment process. Of course, the seasonal adjustment method hasn’t changed, and nobody noticed a winter problem before. Because there wasn’t one.
Our weak winters are only a reflection of our fragile economy.
Here’s a short article that provides evidence that the seasonal adjustment is just fine.