In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 California year-on-year job growth from a fall of about one percent to a fall of about five percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was… Read more

The Employment Development Department’s July 2009 Ventura County jobs report, released Friday, is depressing. From the household survey we see that the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate rose from June’s 10.3 percent to 10.9 percent in July. However, Ventura County’s July seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate usually increases in the summer, due to school closures. Another way… Read more

Most data releases are of seasonally adjusted data, and that is a problem. No one knows what the exact seasonal patterns in the economy are. We estimate them. The new jobs data release is an example of the problem. Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the July employment situation report shows 247 thousand seasonally-… Read more