Previously Published March 22, 2011 Forecasting is a challenge in rapidly changing times, and these are very rapidly changing times. At the beginning of the year, it would have been unbelievable if someone had said that Mubarak would be deposed, we would be in a war in Libya, and there would be general uprisings throughout… Read more

Previously published March 22, 2011 California remains mired in something like a zombie state, not quite dead, but certainly not vigorous, moving but with no clear direction. Perhaps, jobs and migration data best show California listless nature. Jobs have been increasing in almost every sector, but that job growth has been anemic. We saw only… Read more

Previously published in the California Economic Forecast, March 24, 2011 If you are looking for a summary statistic on the United States economy, I recommend you consider bank charge-offs. These are the loans that banks have written off their books, because the probability of collecting them is so low. It doesn’t mean that the borrowers… Read more

Paul Krugman really doesn’t like the possibility that there is a structural shift in employment, because it weakens the argument for the massive Keynesian spending spree he’d like to see the government initiate.  To that end, he published this piece on his blog February 13th. Before we go on, some readers may wonder what a… Read more

We have some economic news out today.  453,000 filed initial unemployment claims, and the second quarter GDP estimate is 1.7 percent growth.  The news people are practically ecstatic over this, proclaiming it’s good news.  The markets seem to agree.  Each of the stock markets are up right now. True enough, the unemployment claims are down… Read more

I get the following question, or something like it all the time.  This time it came by e-mail.  I thought I’d post my response.  Here’s the question: When looking at the economy, unemployment, and job growth…..what consideration is given to the impact of the decline of jobs and/or elimination of jobs in the public sector… Read more

Finally, people are starting to see the problem with the United States economy.  This piece is typical.  For over a year now, we have been warning that the United States could be facing a long period of slow economic growth, similar to what Japan has seen for the past couple of decades. Seeing a problem… Read more

NASSCO-General Dynamics announced that it was laying off 290 workers.  Here’s part of what the Union-Tribune had to say: “NASSCO-General Dynamics , the last major shipbuilder on the West Coast, laid off 290 of its 4,100 workers in San Diego on Monday because of a downturn in business and fluctuations in the repair work it… Read more

The quality of political debate is really amazing. I’m being called a right-wing extremist because a study we did for the California Manufacturers and Technology Association does not fit the “environmentalist” view. It was just a few months ago that I was being called an ivory-tower liberal for discussing the economic benefits of immigrants and… Read more

Yesterday I argued that student loans should be dischargable in bankruptcy.  Given that they are not dischargable, an economist would expect to see insurance available, insurance that would pay the loan if students were incapable of paying it themselves. Since we don’t see the insurance, I assume the reason has to do with asymmetrical information… Read more