The United States Employment Situation for March indicates a cooling of job growth that is consistent with our forecast, although somewhat more pronounced than our forecast. It was the services part of the economy that had the greatest slowdown in job creation, from 204 thousand in February down to 90 thousand in March. And, a… Read more

I just finished John Taylor’s new book, First Principles. It’s a very good and fast read. It’s a little over 200 pages, and not a derivative in it. I don’t think there is even an explicit formula in it. Taylor writes very well, especially for an academic economist. Maybe that is from all his years… Read more

California has now had three consecutive months of job gains, and the State’s unemployment rate has been declining, albeit slowly.  That’s an improvement, but it’s not time to break out the bubbly. For one thing, those job gains have been pretty darn small, and they haven’t been enough to drive down the unemployment rate.  Outmigration… Read more

Forecasting is always difficult. It is even more difficult when the data keep changing. This year, we’ve been plagued by very large adjustments to GDP data. Most have been downward adjustments, but a few have been upward adjustments. Productivity has been the source of most of the changes. Jobs data get revised too, but we… Read more

Today’s jobs data release was below our forecast, and that is bad. It is even worse, when one considers the productivity data released earlier in the week. That report showed that productivity has fallen in each of the past three consecutive quarters. This is the most sustained decline since 1979. Productivity used to have a… Read more

We’ve seen more and more forecasters and analysts revising their forecast down. In fact, after being among the lowest for years, we’re now almost consensus. Remember, they came to us. Downward revisions to United States gross domestic product (GDP) have driven most of the revisions. For about two years, we had trouble with the original… Read more

Michael Puente and Dan Hamilton The BLS’s July Employment Situation was released today. Non-farm jobs grew by 117,000, highly focused on healthcare, (31,000), retail, (26,000), manufacturing, (24,000), and mining (9,000). Despite the increase in jobs, the measured employment level, an alternate measure of workers, decreased. That decrease was met by a larger decrease to the… Read more

The United States Employment Situation was released this morning and the glimmer of hope that I had been nurturing as the February, March, and April data came out has been weakened. While the May public sector jobs result was like I forecasted, the private sector jobs result was much weaker. Non-farm jobs increased 54 thousand… Read more

This is a short note about our forecast of the May labor market. We are still bearish on the overall economy with the usual suspects: banking, real estate, and the labor market weighing against vigorous growth. From the April results, the broad measure of unemployment (including under-employed & marginally attached to labor force) was still… Read more

This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market.  The data comes out this Friday, May 6. Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased by about 200 thousand, and we are tentatively confident that about 180 thousand can occur in April. This forecast reflects… Read more