Today’s report that initial jobless claims unexpectedly “shot up by 25,000 to 471,000 last week” has hit the stock markets hard. I don’t know why the claim is unexpected or why the stock market reacted so strongly.
Volatility is to be expected in a slow recovery, and that’s what we and many other forecasters have consistently expected. Not to mention that weekly, and all high-frequency, data are inherently volatile. Given all the risk of sovereign default, things could be much worse. So far at least, the data are reflecting nothing more onerous than a slow recovery.
Let’s hope it stays that way.