The Gartner Group released a new outlook report for the global semiconductor industry yesterday, November 16th. There is a bit of optimism in this report! The group has raised their forecast for 2009 based on recent data. This is the second time the group has raised their forecast in less than three months. From their report: “personal computers are the single largest application driving the semiconductor rebound: unit growth projections dramatically improved from double-digit declines at the start of 2009 to the current low-single-digit positive outlook”. The personal computer demand has driven demand for microprocessors and DRAM. While many DRAM companies had suffered almost three years of losses, they were profitable during the third quarter.
Despite these positive signs, personal computer orders look to be slowing a bit in very recent data, leading the Gartner Group to expect that 2010 will start slowly. This expectation is congruent with our thinking for the United States economy. The recovery, when it comes, will be during later 2010, and it will be from Business sector investment in equipment, software, and related expenditures. While this activity will of course be welcome, it is not a large share of GDP. While economic growth may resume in later 2010 it is likely to be moderate.