The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting

The Cal Lutheran team is one of California's best — which of course often means being willing to share bad news as well as good. Their presentation skills are exceeded only by the accuracy of their forecasting.

– Joel Kotkin, author, speaker and futurist

CERF in the News

An updated listing of all of CERF's appearances in the news media.


Tough message must be heeded by California lawmakers

California decision-makers must begin to think far more strategically and grasp the significance of developing economic and social trends or face losing a huge portion of the state's middle-class residents within the next two decades.


After Stockton, Economist Sees More Pain in California and Beyond

A California court’s approval this week of the city of Stockton’s bankruptcy protection sets up a battle between Wall Street investors and the state’s pension giant, CalPERS, over whether pensions of municipal workers must share the pain.


Editorial: The perils of a declining Golden State population

California's stubbornly high unemployment rate reflects structural problems that simply will not go away.


Cal Lutheran economist sees California's population declining

Declining birth and migration rates have slowed California's population growth to a crawl and "it's only a matter of time before California's population declines," California Lutheran University economist Bill Watkins declares in a new report on the state's demographic and economic prospects.

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2013/03/cal-lutheran-economist-sees-californias-population-declining.html#storylink=cpy

California's economy will crawl before it runs, according to CLU forecast

California’s economic growth in the next two years will be slow and steadily  accelerating because government policy has choked off a vigorous recovery.


Economists say California's slow population growth a concern

Low births and more people moving out of California than moving in have resulted in the slowest California population growth rates ever observed since the beginning of the 20th century, according to a report released Tuesday by the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting. Read more...


Ventura County Economist Pessimistic About State Housing Rebound

A new forecast from a Ventura County economist being presented in Sacramento today says that signs of a state housing recovery may be premature.


It's time to clean up our DURT
Ray Deutsch and Lawnae Hunter; Guest Commentary

This is the third column submitted by the Economic Alliance of Northern Santa Barbara County, or EconNSBC, the banner under which friends and neighbors have come together as concerned citizens to overcome the economic troubles we face.


Oregon's GDP up, but that doesn't mean more jobs
Kristian Foden-Vencil, Mail Tribune

Oregon's gross domestic product last year was much higher than previously believed -- according to a new report out of the California Lutheran University.


'Declinists' debate 'denialists' on the California economy
Dan Walters, Sacramento Bee

Each month, federal and state officials release new employment data, and the numbers are closely perused as a running barometer of the state's troubled economy.