Productivity used to have a cyclical component. It fell early in a recession, and it rose early in the recovery. The early-recession fall resulted from falling sales and no employment change. The idea is that businesses see the sales decline, but don’t know if it is temporary. So, they don’t layoff for a while and productivity falls.

The early-recovery productivity growth is similar. A business sees increasing sales, but is unsure if it is permanent. So, they avoid adding to payroll until they are confident that the higher sales will be maintained.

All that went away with the past two recessions. In these recessions, productivity growth was relentless, increasing quarter after quarter. Consequently, our models cannot effectively use the new productivity information. (Don’t ask why. It is a statistical answer.)

Some, very few actually, are discounting the new jobs data, because it included the Verizon strike. We note that it also included the return of Minnesota’s government workers, significantly reducing the Verizon impact.

There are other reasons to be concerned about the new jobs data. A big one is that the previous two months were revised down. June was revised down 26,000 jobs (56 percent) to only 20,000, while July was revised down a whopping 32,000 jobs (27 percent) to 85,000. These revisions imply that the initial estimate is currently biased high, implying in turn that we actually lost jobs in August.

The combination of falling productivity and job losses is a powerful indicator that the second dip may be here or coming very soon.

Downward revisions to United States gross domestic product (GDP) have driven most of the revisions. For about two years, we had trouble with the original GDP estimates. Our jobs forecasts were pretty accurate, but we forecasted productivity growth and consumer spending growth below the initial estimates. This caused us enough grief that we’ve been reviewing our models. Well, the revised numbers are entirely consistent with our original models.

Downward revisions to productivity growth and consumer spending are what drove the downward GDP revisions.

Enough bragging. What is happening to the economy? We’re seeing a weak recovery.
Increasing numbers of forecasters, spooked by weak numbers and downward revisions, are now forecasting a double-dip in the near future. We don’t think that is the most likely case.

We’ve said all along that this would be a weak and inconsistent recession, and that appears to be what we are seeing. Some encouraging data might come in this week. The next week could see weak data. This is exactly what we expect to see in a recovery where financial institutions are wounded, real estate is weak, and consumers over extended.

So, we don’t expect a double-dip recession. We expect continued slow growth, accompanied by weak real estate markets, weak consumer spending, slow job growth, and persistent high unemployment.

That would be the good news and the bad news.

Another recession is in our future though, and not just because the business cycle has not been repealed. However, the timing of the next recession is really difficult to forecast, because in part, the timing will probably be politically driven.

I have become convinced that the culmination of Europe’s problems will be a partial breakup of the Eurozone. Perhaps it will be complete breakup. It really doesn’t matter.

Any breakup will almost surely be accompanied by financial and political crises. These crises will initiate a new recession, one that will be impacting an already weakened economy. It’s likely to be very painful.

Non-farm jobs increased 54 thousand over April, consisting of a gain of 83 thousand in the private sector (I forecasted 240 thousand), and a 29 thousand job loss in the public sector (I forecasted a loss of 18 thousand).

What sectors drove the the slowdown? There was a 30 thousand job slowdown in manufacturing jobs, a 70 thousand slowdown in retail jobs, a 40 thousand job slowdown in leisure and hospitality, and a 20 thousand job slowdown in education and healthcare.

The decline in Retail is interesting.  The sector is experiencing a secularly growing share of online sales, which overall, will reduce the demand for workers. Also, there are technology adoptions that have yet to fully play-out. For example, self-check stations are now at major grocery stores, but they are probably not yet responsible for half the check-out volume. But, we can expect they will eventually be responsible for much more than half the check-out volume. Another thing that I worry about is that consumption growth is now under trend and could stay that way due to high consumer debt levels. These, and relatively high unemployment levels, could imply weak Retail job growth in the near term.

The other part of this jobs report contains results from the household survey, which indicates changes in labor force and unemployment. The labor force jumped substantially in May, by 272 thousand people. This was only slightly offset by a rise in 100 thousand people reporting themselves as employed. As a result, the unemployment rate rose from 9.0 to 9.1 percent, much different than my forecast of a fall in the unemployment rate.

This month’s Employment Situation highlights the fragility of the economy. Manufacturing has been one of the few bright spots in the economy since the Great Recession. If a global slowdown is taking hold as some are predicting, this will have a cooling impact on manufacturing jobs and the economy that will last beyond May.

True enough, the unemployment claims are down a bit from the previous week, but last weeks numbers were also revised up.  The fact is initial unemployment claims of 453,000 is a big number.  It is not good news.  Similarly, 1.7 percent GDP growth is is a slight revision upward from the initial estimate, but it is still extraordinarily weak.

It is not time to celebrate yet.

There is only one problem with DJ.  He doesn’t know squat about economics.  It’s not because I haven’t tried.  He refused to believe what I tried to share from my first economics class back in 69/70.  He’s refused to believe anything about economics that I’ve tried to teach him since.  DJ’s a communist, and he’s darn proud of it too, and he’s probably never going to learn, but I’m going to keep trying.

Which brings us to today’s topic.  DJ posted a link to this Robert Reich blog entry and a taunt on Facebook today.

In the blog, Reich correctly points out that inequality is a growing problem in America today.  Then, he starts getting things wrong, very wrong, basically coming to the conclusion that if we reduced managements’ incomes and increased workers’ incomes all would be well with the world.

I can’t believe that Reich really believes that if we just set a higher minimum wage and instituted a new maximum wage, we’d have prosperity for all.  It is well understood in economics that minimum wages increase unemployment and price ceilings create shortages.  Reich’s policy would cause output to fall, unemployment among lower-wage workers to dramatically increase, and management to move to someplace else, say Singapore or Hong Kong.

Inequality is problem, a serious problem and a growing problem.  The causes are a failed educational system, a completely inadequate safety net, and a lack of commitment to opportunity in far too many communities.

While returns to education have been increasing, our educational system has been declining.  The failure to prepare students for the workforce, particularly those who will not go to college, is paid for by the student.  It is paid for in lower income throughout their work life, and in more frequent and longer-lasting income interruptions.

Educational problems are not limited to k-12.  The rapid increase in the cost of a college degree is strong evidence that colleges and universities have managed to extract a significant portion of the gains to education, often leaving the student with debt that takes years to repay.  Too often that expensive, debt-funded, degree fails to provide the expected income, a result of a degree in a field with little market value or a program that lacked rigor.

The lack of an efficient safety net means that unemployed workers have an incentive to take the first available job offer.  That first job offer may be a perfect match, but it may not be.  The problem  is that without a safety net that would allow time for a search for a better match, or provide for geographic mobility, both  society and the worker are worse off.

Finally, communities limit opportunity in the service of quality of life, failing to recall that for many quality of life begins with opportunity.

Benjamin Powell has a nice piece on immigration.   In it he addresses the standard arguments against immigration.  I particularly like the following paragraph on the fear that immigrants take jobs away from the native born:

If immigrants really did take jobs, on net, from existing native-born workers without new jobs also being created, the same should be true any time we add more workers to the economy. Is it? Since 1950, there has been massive entry of women, baby boomers, and immigrants into the work force. As Figure 1 shows, the civilian labor force grew from around 60 million workers in 1950 to more than 150 million workers today. Yet there has been no long-term increase in the unemployment rate. In 1950, the unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, and in 2007, the year before the current recession started, the unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. As more people enter the labor force, more people get jobs.

Powell also covers topics such as the effect of immigration on wages, crime, and the impact of immigration on the welfare state.  It’s an easy read, and a worthwhile one.

The WSJ claims that extending unemployment insurance is causing unemployment, and that their opinion is consistent with Summers’ past statements. Unemployment insurance can exacerbate unemployment in times of full employment, but these are not times of full employment. We know that employers have cut millions of jobs. That is why we see unemployment. It is not even disingenuous to argue that the insurance is causing our current unemployment. It is just dumb.

Summers’ response starts out reasonably enough. He gives the argument I gave in the previous paragraph. Then, though, Summers starts claiming that unemployment is stimulus. That’s pretty silly too.

Unemployment insurance has a minor counter-cyclical impact, but that is not why we have it. We have unemployment insurance because we’re compassionate. We want to help people in tough times, and if that creates a little inefficiency, who cares?

Extended unemployment, such as we are seeing now, is catastrophic for families. Unemployment insurance helps a little. We should extend unemployment insurance, but Summers diminishes himself by pushing the party line and claiming it is stimulus.

So, today’s data release showing a second consecutive weekly increase in new unemployment claims surprised many. The press called it unexpected. It was not unexpected or surprising here at CERF. In fact, it is entirely consistent with our forecast.

We think that GDP will decline modestly in the current quarter and in the first quarter of 2010. Then, we expect a very slow recovery, held back by over-leveraged consumers and businesses, but especially by a weak banking system. The recovery in jobs will likely be weak and trail the GDP recovery by a few quarters.

To answer the question, we think the recession is not yet over, and it probably ends in the second quarter of 2010.

According to the release, there were just under 5 million people (4,934,000) who had been unemployed more that 27 weeks in July. This is up over 700,000 from June’s 4,218,000. It is up over 3 million from the previous year. Those are big increases, and they explain why we saw the big increase in “Discouraged Workers.” These are people who have left the workforce, because they see no chance for employment. Their leaving resulted in the decline in the unemployment rate.

Twenty-seven weeks is a long time to be unemployed, long enough to result in the unmeasured costs of unemployment. These include broken families, domestic violence, drug and alcohol abuse, crime, and the like. Lives have been ruined, as many of these people may never again be part of the mainstream economy.

About a quarter million Americans lost their job in July. Almost another three-quarter of a million moved to Long-Term-Unemployed status. I’m having a hard time understanding how this is good news.

There is also a problem in the unemployment data.

It may have occurred to you that it is a bit strange to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs and lower the unemployment rate at the same time. It is a bit strange.

The problem is discouraged workers. These are people who have given up on finding a job. They may have retired, gone back to school, or just stayed home. Whatever they do, they are not working, and they are not looking for a job. So, the government doesn’t count them as part of the labor force, and unemployment falls while we lose hundreds of thousands of jobs. You gotta love statistics.

So, why the optimism? Beats me.