The Bend MSA (Deschutes County) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell from 14.2 percent in November to 14 percent in December. The Jefferson County unemployment measure fell from 14.4 to 14.1 percent, while the Crook County measure rose from 16.7 percent to 16.8 percent. The declines are due to labor force declines, and not new jobs.

Year-on-year non-farm jobs changes were negative for each of the three counties, which was the case in November. The year-on-year job declines moderated slightly for Crook County, from a 13.6 percent decline in November to a 11.1 percent decline in December. The year-on-year job declines for Deschutes County and Jefferson County were unchanged at 2.5 percent declines and 3.2 percent declines, respectively.

In Crook County, the year-on-year job declines are in all sectors except Retail Trade and Leisure/Hospitality, which is counter to the trends in the State and the United States. In Deschutes County, the year-on-year job declines are in all sectors except Leisure/Hospitality, Personal/Maintenance Services, and Government. In Jefferson County the year-on-year job declines are in only six sectors, in contrast to the State and the Nation. The non-declining sectors include: Construction, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Technology, Education/Healthcare, Leisure/Hospitality, and Personal/Maintenance services.

Central Oregon’s job resilience in Leisure/Hospitality is due to tourism and December tourism at least as evidenced by this jobs report, is providing support to the Central Oregon economy. In part at least, this is due to better early-season ski conditions. Tourism will likely support the Central Oregon labor market for a few months yet to come, which is good news indeed.

We interpret the Central Oregon December jobs report as indicating the area is still “Bumping Along the Bottom”. However, if the non-tourism sectors can begin a process of recovery, then along with the strength in Tourism, the area’s economy could begin a nice recovery.

Retirees work like an export industry for a community. They live in the community, but their income is from a retirement fund completely independent of the community. That’s good, but all is not sweetness. The article hints at some of the problems:

“Migrating boomers don’t necessarily care about school quality or the local job market, but they want pretty scenery, affordable housing, cultural amenities and things to do.”

That quote gets it slightly wrong.

Retiring baby boomers will be moving to a community because they like it just the way it is. They do care about school quality and the local job market, but in a perverse way. They don’t want to see an improving economy. That would be growth. That would be change.

To the extent that improvements in school quality or an improving job market creates change, boomers will actively resist the improvement. They have the time and resources to make that resistance effective. Boomers will put in place laws, regulations, and procedures that will limit any change. Good change or bad change, it doesn’t matter. Boomers will fight all change.

Eventually, as the article points out, the baby boomers will no longer have the vigor to enjoy the rural life style. Then they will leave. They will leave a legacy that will retard economic growth for a generation or more.